MD 0724 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND NORTHEAST NE
Mesoscale Discussion 0724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Mon May 15 2017 Areas affected...portions of eastern and northeast NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 160041Z - 160315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An additional severe thunderstorm watch may need to be considered for parts of eastern and northeast NE in a couple of hours. The mesoscale environment will become increasingly favorable for severe gust potential. Convective trends will be monitored. DISCUSSION...00Z surface analysis places a gradient of richer low-level moisture over south-central NE eastward into southeast NE with dewpoints south of the gradient in the 64-68 degrees F range over southeast NE and north-central KS. The 00Z TOP raob sampled a 12.6 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio compared to the drier 9.7 g/kg mixing ratio by the OAX raob. Other than the TOP raob displaying a stronger capping inversion around 800-mb, both raobs exhibited a similar temperature profile from the surface through 500-mb. The OAX raob possessed a 700-500 mb lapse rates of 8.8 degrees C/km. Strong deep-layer shear will support storm organization with the storm cluster along the NE/KS border as it moves east-northeast this evening. It is likely this activity maintains a severe risk into the Grand Island vicinity in a few hours coincident with a strengthening LLJ. The steep lapse rates, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep shear may support the risk for severe gusts into the late evening and early overnight as storms track east-northeast along the residual baroclinic zone from earlier today. ..Smith/Guyer.. 05/16/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41989823 42559705 42219613 41409611 40709737 41989823
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