SPC MD 734

MD 0734 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KS…NRN OK…WRN MO.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1007 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KS...NRN OK...WRN MO.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 260307Z - 260430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...EXTENDED WW 210 CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS NRN OK AND
CENTRAL/ERN KS UNTIL 04Z.  TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO WITH SUPERCELLS IN NERN KS AND NRN OK SECTIONS OF THIS WW. 
ANOTHER WW IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED SOON FARTHER E ACROSS PARTS OF ERN
KS AND WRN MO.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED/TORNADIC SUPERCELL IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS
PORTIONS ALFALFA/GARFIELD/GRANT COUNTIES OK.  INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF
THIS STORM MAY ALLOW IT TO PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS...GIVEN
LLJ-EXPANDED 0-2-KM HODOGRAPHS AND FAVORABLY MOIST INFLOW. 
STRENGTHENING MLCINH EVENTUALLY WILL OVERCOME FORCED ASCENT FROM
LOW/MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONE...BUT UNTIL THEN TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
PERSIST.

NEAR AND NE OF EXISTING/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL...LOCATED IN WABAUNSEE
COUNTY KS AS OF 03Z...PRIND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND INTO WRN MO.  FETCH OF
LOW-LEVEL WAA...MOISTURE ADVECTION/TRANSPORT WILL PERSIST IN CONCERT
WITH STRENGTHENING/PEAKING SWLY LLJ...PER VWP DATA AND FCST
SOUNDINGS.  2500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD PERSIST AMIDST ONLY SLOWLY
INCREASING MLCINH WITH DEW POINTS COMMONLY UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F. 
MODIFIED RAOBS AND FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST 35-45 KT
EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES IN SUPPORT OF STORM ORGANIZATION.

..EDWARDS/CORFIDI.. 05/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36189717 36209800 36439828 36789818 37359764 38109751
            38719721 39059663 39669583 40099480 39239414 38469433
            37999500 37529592 37129657 36709700 36189717 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1TB68xh