SPC MD 780

MD 0780 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR KANSAS…NERN OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0780
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...KANSAS...NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 292031Z - 292230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PULSE-TYPE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS MAY PERSIST ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  A MOSTLY MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
THREAT MAY TRANSITION TO LOCALLY STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...BEFORE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

DISCUSSION...A PERTURBATION GENERATED BY A NOW DISSIPATED NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER APPEARED TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
INITIATION OF ONGOING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS KANSAS AND
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS OCCURRED IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK
CAPPING...AS INSOLATION CONTRIBUTED TO LARGE CAPE IN THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  

THIS INSTABILITY...AND FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVELY GENERATED
OUTFLOWS...HAVE MAINTAINED SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  WEAK WESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR HAVE GENERALLY RESULTED IN MOSTLY MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD.  THERE REMAINS LITTLE
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER INCREASE IN SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.  

UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
APPEARS UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER...WITH TIME...THE CONSOLIDATION OF COLD
POOLS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OR MORE OF THE ONGOING SMALLER STORM
CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE.  AND ASSOCIATED EASTWARD SURGING GUSTS FRONT
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
SURFACE GUSTS...WHICH COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 05/29/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...
LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   39400233 40720115 40769986 40309864 40299722 39639602
            38559436 38129386 37119381 36159458 36109591 36419666
            37959724 38229851 38320082 38250181 39400233 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1NXafkX