MD 0924 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN KS…WESTERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0924
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0558 PM CDT Tue May 30 2017
Areas affected...Eastern KS...Western MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302258Z - 310030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe wind and hail threat will continue into
early evening before a weakening trend is expected. Watch issuance
is currently not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...A few strong/potentially severe thunderstorms have
recently developed across portions of eastern KS and western MO.
Relatively cool temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates,
in conjunction with strong diurnal heating, has allowed for
weak-to-moderate instability to develop, with SBCAPE of 750-1500
J/kg in place per recent mesoanalyses. Moderate west-northwesterly
flow aloft is supporting effective shear of 35-45 kts, which will
support at least weakly rotating updrafts, with a corresponding risk
of isolated large hail. Despite weak low-level flow, a localized
damaging wind risk will also exist with strong low-level lapse rates
in place. Brief upscale growth may also support a localized damaging
wind risk in the next 1-2 hours.
With negligible large-scale support and the loss of daytime heating,
storms are expected to diminish in intensity this evening. Given the
relatively limited magnitude and duration of the threat, watch
issuance is not expected.
..Dean/Guyer.. 05/30/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38269677 39149488 39309380 39159312 38819274 38349284
37909312 37729476 37529658 37849683 38269677
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2sbE34q
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