SPC MD 944

MD 0944 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS INTO EXTREME SCNTRL AND SERN NEB

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0944
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THROUGH ECNTRL KS INTO EXTREME SCNTRL AND
SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 152310Z - 160115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEWD THROUGH
CNTRL AND ECNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB THROUGH 01Z AFTER WHICH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN INTENSITIES IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED
RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF REMAINING THREAT...A WW WILL PROBABLY
NOT BE NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...STORMS THAT DEVELOPED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT AND
DEEPLY MIXED REGIME ACROSS CNTRL KS WILL CONTINUE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
FOSTERED BY NUMEROUS STORM/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE UNSTABLE OVER ECNTRL KS WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 F AND DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S
SUPPORTING 2500-3500 J/KG MLCAPE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...BUT THE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V
BOUNDARY LAYERS IS FAVORABLE FOR DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION RESULTING FROM ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BY 01Z.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   40439822 39049613 37939614 37389698 38489844 40119893
            40439822 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1S67Or7