MD 0957 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN KS AND EAST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST CO
Mesoscale Discussion 0957 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Tue Jun 06 2017 Areas affected...Western KS and east-central to southeast CO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 062048Z - 062315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible this afternoon into the early evening across western KS into east-central and southeast CO. Locally strong wind gusts and some hail will be the primary severe risks. Given a low probability for storm organization, WW issuance remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery and cloud-top cooling (per IR satellite imagery) indicated thunderstorms continued to develop this afternoon in vicinity of a couple surface boundaries analyzed from southeast CO into northwest KS, and then southeast into south-central KS. This activity has developed within a moderately unstable environment, though bulk shear is relatively weak resulting in pulse-type storms, and a limited potential for supercells. Modest midlevel lapse rates (6.5-7 C/km) and the weak bulk shear suggest a low probability for severe hail, while DCAPE around 1000 J/kg per objective analyses suggests strong wind gusts should be the greatest severe-weather threat. ..Peters/Guyer.. 06/06/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 37720289 38530269 39140183 39410100 39679982 39059951 37469923 37319971 37740054 37750112 37580196 37390231 37380264 37720289
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2s1Sknj
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