MD 0985 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF MN…WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 0985 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 AM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017 Areas affected...central and eastern parts of MN...west-central and northwest WI Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 111051Z - 111215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A severe bow echo will likely move east of WW 311 and reach the Minneapolis/Saint Paul metro around 9AM CDT. Corridors of 50-70 mph gusts will yield scattered wind damage. A new severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued by 7AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a maturing bow echo moving east around 45 kt across eastern SD with a well-developed comma head and rear inflow channel. Very high echo tops (55k ft) associated with the updrafts within the line indicate ample buoyancy and a considerable amount of hydrometers suspended aloft which will translate to severe gusts via 1) momentum transport 2) water loading, and 3) evaporative cooling---which should enable stronger downdrafts to punch higher momentum flow to the surface in the form of 50-70 mph gusts. It seems the concentration of wind damage/severe gusts may preferentially favor the western half of the discussion area as less moisture-rich air infiltrates western WI prior to squall line passage. ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/11/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 45509509 45879279 45749065 44409074 43979468 45509509
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2saLOKk
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