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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1961

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Mesoscale Discussion 1961
MD 1961 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1961
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0806 PM CST Sun Dec 05 2021

   Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Northern Arkansas...Southern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 060206Z - 060400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is likely to develop from eastern Oklahoma
   east-northeastward across southern Missouri and northern Arkansas
   over the next hour. Weather watch will be needed across the region.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across
   northern Oklahoma, far southeast Kansas and western Missouri. The
   front is moving southeastward and low-level convergence has
   increased over the last according to objective analysis. In
   response, convective towers have developed along the front and cells
   are beginning to initiate. The airmass ahead of the front is moist
   with surface dewpoints near 60 F and MLCAPE is estimated to be in
   the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, the latest WSR-88D VWPs at
   Tulsa and Fort Smith have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 kt range with
   speed shear in the boundary layer and curved hodographs. This should
   be favorable for supercells with storms that can remain discrete
   amid a rapid expansion in convective coverage. The low-level shear
   may also support a tornado threat. Eventually, a nearly continuous
   line of storms is expected to organize along the front. Wind damage,
   hail and an isolated tornado threat should accompany the more
   intense parts of the line. The threat should develop eastward and
   southeastward with time as the cold front advances.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 12/06/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35179397 34899491 34919563 35019597 35299635 35699641
               36139620 36599567 37039503 37529349 37809168 37968915
               37908847 37568800 36968792 36598804 36168870 36048967
               35549278 35179397 

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