SPC MD 1610

MD 1610 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470… FOR PORTIONS OF SRN NEB…WRN/NRN KS

MD 1610 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1610
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0329 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN NEB...WRN/NRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470...

VALID 042029Z - 042230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 470
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS WW 470 THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PERSISTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. ADDITIONAL NEAR-SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF THE WATCH...BUT THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SWRN
NEB/NWRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MULTIPLE REPORTS OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. CELLS ACROSS NWRN KS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
PROGRESS SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH NEW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MODULATED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH AS WELL AS
OUTFLOW COLLISIONS/MERGERS. MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS SHOULD SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION OF THE
STRONGEST CELLS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS. WHILE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS MANIFEST ITSELF IN
RELATIVELY OUTFLOW-DOMINANT SUPERCELLS...STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS
MAY STILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.

FORCING FOR ASCENT ALOFT/WEAK WAA IS FOCUSING NEW CONVECTION EAST OF
THE CURRENT WATCH. WHILE SOME MARGINAL HAIL/WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
HERE /INCLUDING THE FAIRLY ROBUST-APPEARING BOWING SEGMENT OVER
FRONTIER AND GOSPER COUNTIES IN NEB/...CLOUD DEBRIS/LACK OF GREATER
DESTABILIZATION SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PICCA.. 08/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40589907 39649731 39259693 38429784 38239998 38720158
            39400208 40330217 40930051 40589907 

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SPC MD 1596

MD 1596 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS…SERN NEB…NWRN MO…AND FAR SWRN IA

MD 1596 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND FAR
SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 031644Z - 031845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR A LARGE HAIL REPORT OR TWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR BROWN COUNTY KS EWD TO DAVIESS COUNTY MO
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SUBTLE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...AND AN ATTENDANT MASS RESPONSE/WEAK WAA ATOP A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z TOP RAOB EXHIBITS
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST
VERTICAL ACCELERATION. ADDITIONALLY...UPWARDS OF 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...WHICH
WOULD BOLSTER HAIL GROWTH AS WELL. THUS...A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
SPATIOTEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..PICCA/HART.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39849297 39369288 38789308 38409403 38779582 39569743
            40389760 41109742 41169557 40899388 40829382 40179322
            39849297 

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SPC MD 1596

MD 1596 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS…SERN NEB…NWRN MO…AND FAR SWRN IA

MD 1596 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1596
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN MO...AND FAR
SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 031644Z - 031845Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE
A THREAT FOR A LARGE HAIL REPORT OR TWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR BROWN COUNTY KS EWD TO DAVIESS COUNTY MO
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A SUBTLE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN NWLY FLOW
ALOFT...AND AN ATTENDANT MASS RESPONSE/WEAK WAA ATOP A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. THE 12Z TOP RAOB EXHIBITS
RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST
VERTICAL ACCELERATION. ADDITIONALLY...UPWARDS OF 30 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR WEAK UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...WHICH
WOULD BOLSTER HAIL GROWTH AS WELL. THUS...A COUPLE OF LARGE HAIL
REPORTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO
THE LACK OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIMITED
SPATIOTEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

..PICCA/HART.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39849297 39369288 38789308 38409403 38779582 39569743
            40389760 41109742 41169557 40899388 40829382 40179322
            39849297 

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SPC MD 1595

MD 1595 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA

MD 1595 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1595
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0206 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 030706Z - 030930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING SWD ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL OHIO TO CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH THE EARLY-MORNING HOURS.
STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH
ADDITIONAL SVR WIND GUSTS WILL BE UNLIKELY. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A W/E-ORIENTED SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING FROM NEAR MFD TO N OF LAF MOVING SWD AROUND 30 KT.
SINGLE-SITE RADAR DATA SAMPLING THIS LINE SUGGEST THAT ITS
ACCOMPANYING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GENERALLY LIES AHEAD OF THE PARENT
CONVECTION. WITH AREA VWPS SAMPLING GENERALLY SQUALL-LINE-PARALLEL
LOW/MID-LEVEL MEAN FLOW...THE IMPLIED ANAFRONTAL CONFIGURATION OF
THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS IT SPREADS SWD.

NEVERTHELESS...A FEED OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SW -- REF
00Z ILX RAOB SAMPLING AROUND 13.0-13.5 G PER KG MEAN MIXING RATIO --
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION ATOP THE
ESTABLISHED COLD POOL. DESPITE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OF THE
PBL...IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS /AROUND -65C/
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION ARE BEING MAINTAINED.
THIS IS IN PROXIMITY TO A PLUME OF 1.00-1.50-INCH PW EXTENDING NEWD
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY PER GPS DATA. FURTHERMORE...WITH
MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY UPSTREAM 00Z RAOBS
FACILITATING ELEVATED BUOYANCY...A CONTINUED SWD SAG OF THE ONGOING
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING -- REACHING
COLUMBUS OHIO TO INDIANAPOLIS IN THE 0815Z-0930Z TIME FRAME.

ULTIMATELY...CONTINUING NOCTURNAL GAINS IN STATIC STABILITY WILL
LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND OF THIS CONVECTION AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
IS LACKING...BASED UPON MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY. IN THE
MEANTIME...ILN AND IND VWPS SAMPLED 30-40 KT OF FLOW ABOVE THE SFC
IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL...INDICATING THAT CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM
TRANSPORT COULD AID IN LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...WITH THE LIMA
OHIO ASOS RECENTLY REPORTING A 50-KT WIND GUST. HOWEVER...THE
GROWING MLCINH AND ANAFRONTAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD
GREATLY LIMIT ADDITIONAL SVR-WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
EARLY-MORNING HOURS. REGARDLESS...LOCALIZED STRONG-WIND GUSTS
CAPABLE OF SPORADIC DAMAGE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON   39678729 40238666 40458417 40478301 40038280 39508302
            39258467 39118684 39678729 

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SPC MD 1594

MD 1594 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NWRN MO

MD 1594 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1594
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 030550Z - 030815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A LINGERING SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN MO. WW 464 WAS PREVIOUSLY
LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME ACROSS PART OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WEAK ASCENT ATOP RESIDUAL OUTFLOW -- DEPOSITED BY
EARLIER CONVECTION THAT SPREAD SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL/CNTRL 
MO -- IS MAINTAINING A SMALL CLUSTER OF TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NODAWAY
COUNTY TO MERCER COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FED BY FLUXES OF
HIGH THETA-E AIR EMANATING FROM LOCATIONS SW OF THE OUTFLOW 
BOUNDARY -- E.G. SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S IN NERN KS. WITH THE EARLIER 00Z TOP RAOB
SAMPLING MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /AROUND 6.8 C PER KM
IN THE H7-H5 LAYER/ THERE WILL BE A CONTINUING RISK FOR A FEW
INTENSE CONVECTIVE CORES. ISOLATED SVR HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
THE SHORT TERM AS TSTMS SLOWLY ADVANCE SEWD/SSEWD. HOWEVER...WITH
THE EAX VWP SUGGESTING OVERALL WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF WAA...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AS IMPLIED BY MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...OVERALL CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS NOCTURNAL MLCINH GROWS. AS SUCH...ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS
NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...

LAT...LON   39609416 40119497 40379519 40489492 40479357 39839298
            39509347 39609416 

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SPC MD 1591

MD 1591 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

MD 1591 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1591
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 022322Z - 030015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT WITHIN A
VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AS SUCH...A WATCH IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING/STRENGTHENING...ALONG A
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER-80S TO
LOW-90S F WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-T0-MID 70S F.
THIS...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE COMBINED TO
YIELD MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 4000 J/KG. ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA IS ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 35 KTS. THE COMBINATION OF
CAPE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE PRESENCE OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE-COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM CORES. 

HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WITH TIME...AND THE LOSS OF DAY-TIME HEATING AND LOWER SURFACE DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH /ACROSS MISSOURI/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
A WEAKENING OF THE OVERALL INSTABILITY. AS SUCH...IT APPEARS THERE
MAY ONLY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO HAVE
A SUSTAINED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ASSESSED.

..MARSH/CORFIDI.. 08/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   41169762 41509674 41799335 41619202 40909148 40129165
            39879332 39889541 40339703 40629771 41169762 

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SPC MD 1582

MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN MN…ERN ND

MD 1582 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0616 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN MN...ERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 021116Z - 021345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR-HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST EARLY THIS
MORNING...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN ND INTO NWRN MN WITHIN A BAND OF ASCENT RELATED TO A
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSING THE REGION PER WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY.
CLOUD-TOP COOLING IMPLIED BY IR IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE WWD
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION INTO THE REGION...WHERE A FEED OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS BEING MAINTAINED FROM THE W. TSTMS WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING SEWD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
AMIDST MUCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY
OCCUR...AIDED BY AROUND 50 KT OF DEEP SHEAR SAMPLED BY THE MVX VWP.
HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER ELEVATED BUOYANCY DISPLACED ESEWD ACROSS THE
REGION TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER AND POINTS EWD...THE SVR-HAIL RISK
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED/MARGINAL.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 08/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

LAT...LON   46999736 47489548 46819449 45919539 46119687 46999736 

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SPC MD 1566

MD 1566 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459… FOR NERN KS THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB…SRN IA…NRN MO AND EXTREME WCNTRL IL

MD 1566 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1566
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH EXTREME SERN NEB...SRN IA...NRN MO
AND EXTREME WCNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459...

VALID 290104Z - 290300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 459
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS REMAINING PORTION OF WW 459 WITH GREATEST
THREAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER SRN IA NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NCNTRL IA
SWWD TO NERN KS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED OVER SRN IA
EXTENDING INTO SWRN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
COLD FRONT. STORMS ARE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG IA PORTION OF THE FRONT
AND JUST NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH AN
AXIS OF 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE OVER SRN IA AND NRN MO. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ESEWD THROUGH THE EVENING...EVENTUALLY SPREADING
INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND WCNTRL IL. DES MOINES VWP INDICATE SUPERCELL
WIND PROFILES WITH 35-40 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR JUST NORTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TENDENCY WILL REMAIN FOR MOST STORMS TO BE
UNDERCUT BY THIS SWD ADVANCING BOUNDARY WHICH ALONG WITH ONSET OF
NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT GIVEN ITS STABLE
CHARACTERISTICS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL. 

TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SWRN EXTENT INTO NERN
KS WHERE THE 00Z RAOB FROM TOPEKA INDICATES AN INVERSION NEAR 850
MB...AND SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS POTENTIALLY HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED LIMITED INCREASE IN THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ LOWER CONFIDENCE IN REDEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.

..DIAL.. 07/29/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39349709 40769573 41839439 42039299 41639131 40849109
            40319278 39589468 38919686 39349709 

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SPC MD 1565

MD 1565 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO NERN KS AND FAR NWRN MO

MD 1565 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS
INTO NERN KS AND FAR NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 282150Z - 290015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS
THE AREA.

DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING/STALLING SFC BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM
NEAR BEATRICE NEB TO E OF DODGE CITY KS TO AMARILLO TX...AND
INSTABILITY IS BECOMING STRONG ALONG AND ON THE WARM SIDE /E AND S
SIDE/ OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY...BOUNDARY-LAYER-BASED CUMULUS
FIELDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED INVOF THE BOUNDARY AS THE PBL
HAS DEEPENED WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING REACHED 95-103F ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME INTENSE OWING TO
THE STRONG INSTABILITY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
DCAPE AROUND 1200-1600 J/KG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
WITH A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE LARGE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME SVR HAIL POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...THE STALLING
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FRONTAL-ZONE RESIDENCE TIME
FOR TSTMS TO INTERACT WITH RELATED BOUNDARY-ENHANCED VERTICAL
VORTICITY TO BE STRETCHED FOR A NON-ZERO -- ALBEIT LOW -- TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OVER 25 KT ARE GENERALLY
DISPLACED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
BE VERY LIMITED IN THE HIGH-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...TSTMS MAY
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL...LIKELY PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.
REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED -- PARTICULARLY IN
NERN KS TO FAR NWRN MO THAT WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TAIL
END OF A GLANCING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION LOCALLY ENHANCING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
RELATED TO THIS FEATURE MAY ENCOURAGE AN EVOLUTION TO MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A SOMEWHAT GREATER SVR RISK.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/28/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   39799726 39949478 39619450 39349500 38809632 38139734
            36130013 35120209 35280259 35660240 38089959 39799726 

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SPC MD 1552

MD 1552 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST WY…EXTREME SOUTHEAST MT…AND WESTERN SD

MD 1552 Image


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NORTHEAST WY...EXTREME SOUTHEAST MT...AND
WESTERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 272050Z - 272215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHEAST WY AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST MT INTO WESTERN SD THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH ISSUANCE TO
BE COORDINATED SOON FOR THIS REGION AND LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH AS
DISCUSSED IN MCD 1551.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA...GOES-R CLOUD-TOP COOLING
PRODUCT AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A RELATIVELY RAPID INCREASE IN
TSTM INTENSITIES WITH STORMS TRACKING TO THE NNE ACROSS FAR NE WY
AND FAR WRN SD IN VICINITY OF A COLD FRONT IN FAR ERN WY AND A N-S
ORIENTED PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY NEAR AND EAST OF THESE BOUNDARIES
FAVORS SUSTAINED/STRONG UPDRAFTS...WHILE STRENGTHENING BULK SHEAR
WILL ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ORGANIZATION.  THE RECENT INCREASE
IN STORM INTENSITIES IS LIKELY INDICATING THE LEADING EXTENT OF
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPSTREAM...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

..PETERS/GOSS.. 07/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...

LAT...LON   44350564 45970428 46010238 44710180 43830196 42970203
            43020385 43530438 43590516 44350564 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1fB5aOE