SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2016 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. ...SYNOPSIS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/MIDWEST BY EARLY WED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON SPATIOTEMPORAL ASPECTS OF THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED CYCLOGENESIS. CONSENSUS SUGGESTS AT LEAST MODEST CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AS AN INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET EJECTS FROM THE KS/OK BORDER AREA TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY THROUGH 12Z/WED. A SHARP COLD FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE E OVER THE MIDWEST TUE EVENING/NIGHT...BECOMING INCREASINGLY OCCLUDED WITH NRN EXTENT. SRN PORTION OF FRONT SHOULD HAVE A MORE SELY PUSH FROM THE MID-MS TO TN VALLEYS. ...MIDWEST... POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR GREATER SEVERE PROBABILITIES BUT LINGERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE AFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALONG WITH POOR CONSISTENCY IN MODEL THERMODYNAMIC PROGS PRECLUDES ANY UPGRADE TO ENHANCED RISK THIS OUTLOOK. WITH PREVAILING WLYS AT 850 MB IN PRECEDING DAYS ACROSS THE NRN GULF...THE BULK OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD OCCUR BENEATH THIS LEVEL FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON D2. A PLUME OF 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD BECOME PREVALENT NWD INTO THE IA/IL/MO PORTION OF THE MS VALLEY. BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. THE MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR SURFACE-BASED INITIATION APPEARS TO BE IN PARTS OF IL AS ROBUST MID-LEVEL DCVA APPROACHES THIS PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR. DIFFERENCES EXIST IN GUIDANCE WITH THE STRENGTH OF 850-700 MB WINDS WITH THE NAM SUGGESTIVE OF A WEAKNESS IN THIS PART OF THE HODOGRAPH. AS SUCH...OVERALL MODE IS UNCERTAIN AND MAY BE A MIX OF SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND LINEAR CLUSTERS. THIS TYPE OF SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT ALL HAZARDS WITH SEVERE HAIL POTENTIALLY BEING THE PRIMARY RISK INITIALLY. ON TUE EVENING/NIGHT...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WINDS AND THE ACCELERATING COLD FRONT MIGHT SUPPORT A SMALL PROGRESSIVE MCS EWD ACROSS IND/WRN OH WITH A PRIMARY DAMAGING WIND RISK. HOWEVER...TIME OF DAY AND AN INCREASINGLY PINCHED-OFF WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO OUTPACE THE MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT AND IN THE ERN EXTENT OF A SLIGHT RISK THREAT. ...KY/TN AND NRN PORTIONS OF MS/AL... LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER WITH SRN EXTENT AS THE BULK OF MID-LEVEL DCVA/UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE OH VALLEY. TRAILING PORTION OF WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDER TUE NIGHT. WITHIN A PLUME OF 60-65 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS AND MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE SHOULD BE PREVALENT NEAR THE FRONT. STRENGTHENING EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL IF THUNDER OCCURS. ..GRAMS.. 03/14/2016
from SPC Convective Outlooks http://1.usa.gov/1LHQZVW
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