SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2020 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the south central Plains into Ozark Plateau Tuesday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Models continue to suggest that mid/upper flow may begin to become less progressive and characterized by increased blocking across the eastern Pacific during this period. As this occurs, a closed mid-level low, initially over the southern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, will be slow to progress eastward. Within larger-scale troughing, it appears that the low may begin to weaken while elongating northeastward across the central and southern California coast through the Sierra Nevada and lower Colorado Valley. The mid-level cold core may remain offshore through much of the period. Downstream of the mid-level low and troughing, mid-level ridging may be maintained across the southern Rockies and southern Plains. However, there may be some suppression of the ridging by late Tuesday night, mainly north of the Red River. Models indicate that this could occur in response to a short wave trough digging across the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, within a much more progressive branch of westerlies across the northern mid-latitude Pacific through southern Canada and the northern tier of the United States. In association with a couple of downstream perturbations, a modest surface low is forecast to migrate from the southwestern Quebec/Ontario border vicinity into the Canadian Maritimes, with a trailing cold front advancing southeastward through much of the Northeast, Mid Atlantic and Ohio Valley. The western flank of the front is forecast to stall across the south central Plains, and perhaps return slowly northward, as another weak to modest surface low migrates southeastward out of Colorado, across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle region by late Tuesday night. To the south of the surface front, further boundary layer moistening, coupled with steepening lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates, may yield weak to moderate boundary-layer CAPE (500-1000 J/kg) across much of central/eastern Texas into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday afternoon. However, this will largely take place beneath the mid-level ridging, where warm layers aloft may tend to inhibit deep convective development, and the potential for thunderstorms is largely conditional on uncertain forcing for ascent. ...South central Plains into Ozark Plateau... Potential for thunderstorm initiation near the intersection of the initially stalled surface front and deepening lee surface troughing across northwest Texas now appears too conditional to maintain even low severe probabilities. However, a strengthening low-level warm advection regime to the northeast may still provide a focus for scattered strong thunderstorms, mainly after 11/06Z Tuesday night, as elevated moisture return above the surface front contributes to most unstable CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Model forecast soundings suggest that the environment may become conducive to storms capable of producing marginally severe hail. A developing area of enhanced lift, aided by 850 mb low-level jet strengthening to 30-40+ kt may support a small upscale growing and organizing cluster of storms across parts of south central Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma. In addition to some hail, this cluster could also support a few strong surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 03/09/2020
from SPC Convective Outlooks http://bit.ly/1LHQZVW
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