MD 1045 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TO EASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017
Areas affected...Portions of the mid Missouri Valley to eastern Iowa
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 152211Z - 152315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop through the evening
hours, with an attendant potential for large hail and damaging
winds. Observational trends are being monitored for possible watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Visible satellite late this afternoon depicts pockets
of agitated/towering cumulus across the mid Missouri Valley and
vicinity this evening. Also noted in satellite imagery,
mid/upper-level cloud cover continues to overspread these cumulus
fields, suggesting a speed maximum may be providing weak large-scale
ascent. Despite fairly weak low-level convergence along a front
extending northeast, the influence of this system may be sufficient
for isolated convective initiation over the next several hours.
Moreover, guidance suggests development may be bolstered along the
northern fringe of an anvil spreading north from a convective system
over Kansas. An array of mesoscale/microphysical processes (e.g.,
differential heating, anvil seeding, gravity waves) may be the cause
of such bolstered development; regardless, visible satellite appears
to confirm the notion of enhanced development along the leading edge
of the anvil. Steep mid-level lapse rates (and related strong
buoyancy), as well as adequate westerly mid/upper flow, may be
sufficient for a few organized/rotating updrafts, capable of large
hail and damaging winds. Therefore, trends are being monitored for
possible watch issuance over the next few hours.
..Picca/Guyer.. 06/15/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 41409279 40829457 39999684 40029864 40399911 40649878
41549684 42839455 43069352 43089241 42999189 42559163
42169165 41789205 41409279
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2s6R4OH
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