MD 0105 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EAST NE…SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL IA…NORTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019 Areas affected...East NE...southwest into Central IA...northern MO Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 170126Z - 170630Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow expected over the next several hours. Up to 1 inch/hr snowfall rates will be possible in some spots. DISCUSSION...A mid-level shortwave trough and associated 850 mb low are currently established in the Central Plains, preceded by deep-layer moisture advection and low-level WAA across the Mid-Missouri Valley. At the moment, the thermodynamic profile of the troposphere across the discussion area can be characterized by near-saturated to saturated conditions in the sfc-700 mb layer (per 00Z TOP observed soundings and recent RAP point-forecast soundings), with relatively strong WAA advection present in the 925-700 mb layer, amidst below-freezing temperatures throughout the column. The -12 to -17C layer, favorable for dendritic growth, is nearly saturated and quite deep across the discussion area (per latest mesoscale analysis) and is expected to remain so for several more hours, as the aforementioned WAA and large scale ascent continues to impinge on the region. As such, conditions support at least occasionally heavy snow throughout the evening hours, with a few spots potentially seeing accumulation rates of up to 1 inch/hr, as supported by the latest high resolution model guidance. ..Squitieri.. 02/17/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 41379175 40209199 39589309 39359470 39789599 40169718 40619810 41599783 42209666 42349506 42249410 41759268 41379175
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2NaLROL
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