SPC MD 1069


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Mesoscale Discussion 1069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0955 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2020

Areas affected...Southeast Missouri...northeast Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011455Z - 011630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Limited potential for damaging wind gusts exists for areas
downstream of ongoing south-central MO convection. Greatest risk
appears to be in northeast AR if convection is maintained. No WW is
currently expected. Trends will be monitored, however.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms moving southeastward into
south-central Missouri may pose some risk for isolated
strong/damaging wind gusts for another few hours. Overall,
convective trends have been down with IR satellite showing
contraction of the coldest cloud tops. With the 12Z LZK showing near
22 C at 850 mb and outflow from an overnight MCS to the east, the
potential for intensification appears limited. Should convection
maintain strength, the area of greatest risk for damaging wind gusts
will likely exist in northeast Arkansas where the strongest heating
will occur. Given the uncertainty, no WW is currently anticipated.
Trends will continue to be monitored this afternoon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/01/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...


LAT...LON   37809339 38259256 37919086 36578997 35479000 35219073
            35459176 36709303 37359348 37809339 

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