MD 1100 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2020
Areas affected...northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 042146Z - 042345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms will continue to pose the risk for
isolated hail and wind over the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Radar trends from KFDR show continued thunderstorm
development along outflow boundaries across southwest OK into
northeast TX and the eastern TX Panhandle. Given limited convective
inhibition and upwards of 1000-2000 J/km MLCAPE, continued
convective development along these outflows is possible over the
next few hours, especially along and south of the OK/TX border as a
more cohesive outflow boundary moves southward. Despite weak deep
layer shear (around 20 knots of effective bulk shear per RAP
forecast soundings), recent one inch hail reports from the TX
Panhandle and transient, but intense, cloud top cooling in IR
imagery suggests that storms in this environment will continue to
pose at least a brief threat for severe hail with any stronger
updraft pulses. Additionally, steep low-level lapse rates around 8
C/km will continue to support thunderstorm outflows with the
potential for severe wind gusts. However, given the isolated nature
of the stronger storms this hail and wind threat is expected to be
fairly limited spatially, making watch issuance unlikely.
..Moore.. 07/04/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33749974 34120079 34660134 35330132 35630109 35690070
35580007 35079900 34759833 34539803 34259772 34009783
33769822 33689916 33749974
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1ptZQ0R
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