MD 1117 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316… FOR SRN/CNTRL KS…NW/N-CNTRL OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1117 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0603 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL KS...NW/N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316... VALID 022303Z - 030030Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS ALTHOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT. DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...ONE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CNTRL KS...ANOTHER FARTHER E ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM NEAR ICT EWD INTO SE KS...AND A THIRD ALONG A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER SW KS. A FAIRLY UNIFORM WIND FIELD EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH REGIONAL VADS AND MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME LOCAL BACKING OF THE SURFACE WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE RESULTING ENHANCEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ROTATION AND A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF DISCRETE STORM RESULTING FROM MULTIPLE STORM SPLITS AND THE WEAK WAA REGIME SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT LOW. STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SAMPLED BY REGIONAL VADS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SPLITTING SUPERCELLS...WITH MAINTENANCE OF BOTH LEFT AND RIGHT SPLITS POSSIBLE...EVEN N OF THE WARM FRONT. AIRMASS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WARM FRONT IS UNSTABLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING BUT THE GENERALLY WEAK MID-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST SLOW MOVEMENT...WITH HEAVY RAIN AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ..MOSIER.. 07/02/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35900163 37650162 38859600 37139599 35900163
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/29kSNHm
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