MD 1119 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316… FOR SRN/CNTRL KS…NW/N-CNTRL OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0920 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL KS...NW/N-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316... VALID 030220Z - 030345Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...LOCALLY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL KS WITH ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS WW 316 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST A LINEAR TRANSITION HAS OCCURRED WITH THE CLUSTER OF TSTMS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS CNTRL KS. KICT VELOCITY DATA SHOWS AN AREA OF 50-60 KT AROUND 4000 FT W OF HUT. TRENDS SUGGESTS SOME FORWARD-PROPAGATION IS LIKELY WITH THIS PORTION OF THE LINE WITH A RESULTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS CLUSTER IS WITHIN THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE REGION AND FRONTAL CIRCULATIONS MAY ALSO ENHANCED THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW -- VALIDATED BY VNX AND ICT VADS SAMPLING 35 KT AND 30 KT AT 1 KM...RESPECTIVELY -- WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MESOVORTICIES WITHIN THE LINE. ELSEWHERE...TSTMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE DEVELOPING MCS ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE WANING INSTABILITY REDUCES THE OVERALL SVR THREAT. ..MOSIER.. 07/03/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 35910163 37630162 38869599 37139598 35910163
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