MD 1126 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1126 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017 Areas affected...Portions of western/central KS into south-central NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222054Z - 222330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated instances of large hail and damaging winds may occur with thunderstorms forming along a cold front over the next several hours. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Strong daytime heating has encouraged surface temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 90s across western/central KS into south-central NE as of 2045Z. A weak cold front draped from northeast to southwest across this region will provide a focus for low-level convergence and possible convective development over the next few hours. 20Z RAP Mesoanalysis shows CIN eroding from west to east along the front, and recent visible satellite imagery shows several attempts at initiation across southwestern KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates emanating from the higher terrain of western/central CO have overspread this region, and combined with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 60s are contributing to generally 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest mid-level winds will likely remain a bit to the north of western/central KS and south-central NE, but a veering wind profile with height should support 35-40 kt of effective bulk shear through the early evening. It is not entirely clear how much convection will form along the front late this afternoon, but any thunderstorm that does form will pose an isolated threat for large hail and strong/damaging winds. In addition, ongoing convection across eastern CO may also contain an isolated severe risk as it moves into western KS over the next several hours. Radar and observational trends will be monitored for possible watch issuance through 23Z. ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/22/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38810193 38740112 38780042 39209985 40299924 40879862 41019821 40889755 40199742 39339762 38659842 37639985 37130082 37140193 37970196 38810193
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2svnnqA
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