MD 1147 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NEB AND NRN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0459 PM CDT TUE JUL 05 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN NEB AND NRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 052159Z - 060030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE UPSCALE-GROWING
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND MCS DEVELOPMENT...POTENTIALLY YIELDING AN
INCREASE IN THE SVR-WIND RISK. THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SRN NEB AND
FAR NRN KS IN PROXIMITY TO A WIND-SHIFT AXIS/WEAK FRONT ANALYZED
FROM E OF LEXINGTON NEB TO NE OF COLBY KS. ADDITIONALLY...HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION CONTINUES SPREADING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE HIGH PLAINS
OF SERN WY/NERN CO/NEB PANHANDLE. THIS LATTER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH ASCENT RELATED TO A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX GLANCING MODEST
BUOYANCY N OF THE WIND-SHIFT AXIS...AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING OBSERVED
SFC WIND GUSTS AROUND 35-40 KT.
BOTH AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED
CLUSTERING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INCREASING COLD POOL CONSOLIDATION
IN THE HIGH-DCAPE ENVIRONMENT MAY GIVE RISE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ONE OR TWO SEVERE MCS/S DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS COULD
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE AS STRONGER ASCENT/DEEP SHEAR RELATED TO THE
WRN CONVECTION FOSTERS MORE SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED INTERACTING UPDRAFTS
IN THE UPSLOPE-FLOW REGIME...THAT COULD EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EWD EXTENT ACROSS SRN NEB/NRN KS AND
VICINITY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EASTERN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MAY ALSO
GROW UPSCALE AMIDST GREATER BUOYANCY IN S-CNTRL NEB AND N-CNTRL KS.
AN INCREASING LLJ THIS EVENING MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AND
RELATED SVR-WIND POTENTIAL.
OVERALL...UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST REGARDING PROSPECTS FOR UPSCALE
GROWTH OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. STRONG DEEP SHEAR/ASCENT IS
SOMEWHAT REMOVED TO THE NW OF RICHER BUOYANCY FOCUSED ALONG/S AND SE
OF THE WIND-SHIFT AXIS. FURTHERMORE...DEEP SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...AND THIS RESULTS IN RESERVATIONS REGARDING CONFIDENCE IN
ANY SUBSTANTIAL UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH. NEVERTHELESS...THE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
AMIDST SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR RESULTS IN SOME CONSIDERATION FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SVR POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IF
UPSCALE-GROWING MCS POTENTIAL WERE TO APPEAR TO INCREASE WITH AN
INCREASING SVR-WIND POTENTIAL...THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY
BECOME NECESSARY.
..COHEN/GUYER.. 07/05/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 41519790 40879742 39709771 39339955 39470144 40250191
41030183 41320148 41550040 41519790
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/29kcbXn
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