MD 1152 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN NE…NORTHERN KS…EASTERN CO
Mesoscale Discussion 1152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017
Areas affected...Southern NE...Northern KS...Eastern CO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 261903Z - 262030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are
possible this afternoon, with a threat of large hail and locally
damaging wind gusts.
DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm has recently intensified across
southwest NE, with additional towering cumulus noted extending into
far northeast CO along a weak cold front. Towering cumulus has also
recently developed across along a weak surface trough into
east-central CO. While large-scale forcing is subtle at best, slight
moistening noted on WV imagery is suggestive that modest ascent is
overspreading the region. Additional storms will likely be focused
along the weak cold front extending from northeast CO into southwest
NE/north-central KS, and also along a NNW-SSE oriented outflow
boundary running from north of Concordia, KS to just east of Salina,
KS.
Moderate midlevel northwesterly flow will continue to support
effective shear of 35-45 kts through the afternoon, which will be
sufficient to support organized convection, and a few supercells
will be possible later this afternoon. Buoyancy and midlevel lapse
rates are greatest across eastern CO/northwest KS/southwest NE and
decrease with eastward extent, but MLCAPE of 750-1500 J/kg across
the MCD area will be sufficient for some hail risk with the
strongest cells. Weak low-level flow will tend to limit the damaging
wind risk to some extent, but steep low-level lapse rates will
support some wind gust potential, especially with any upscale growth
that may occur later this afternoon.
Some uncertainty remains regarding the coverage of the severe threat
this afternoon, but watch issuance is possible if multiple organized
cells/clusters appear imminent.
..Dean/Guyer.. 06/26/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 40810231 40379938 40129760 39759725 38499624 38379722
38490112 38610319 39250343 40420306 40810231
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2tc1wW5
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