MD 1154 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KS…FAR SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1154 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017 Areas affected...Southeast KS...Far southwest MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 262048Z - 262215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe storm or two is possible this afternoon, with a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind. DISCUSSION...A strong thunderstorm has recently developed between Emporia and Chanute in southeast KS, with other attempts at initiation noted along a surface boundary draped from near Springfield MO northwest into central KS. While instability is rather weak, given poor midlevel lapse rates noted in the 17Z Lamont sounding and area PFCs and seasonably modest low-level moisture, heating south of the boundary has allowed MLCAPE to rise into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Modest midlevel northwesterly flow atop weak low-level southwesterlies is resulting in effective shear of 30-40 kts, which is sufficient for some storm organization with the strongest updrafts. Isolated instances of hail, and perhaps strong wind gusts, will be possible as convection develops along the weak surface boundary and moves southeast. Given the relatively limited coverage and magnitude of the severe threat, watch issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/26/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38459730 38209608 37689426 37579358 37109377 37039458 37229634 37559722 37999753 38459730
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2tdEhLE
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