SPC MD 1156

MD 1156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS…EASTERN COLORADO…AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

Mesoscale Discussion 1156
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Wed Jul 25 2018

Areas affected...Portions of Western Kansas...Eastern Colorado...and
Far Southern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 251856Z - 252130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expecting to develop this afternoon with some
of the storms likely becoming severe. Hail/wind are the main
threats.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms has been moving southeast
throughout the morning over Nebraska and into northern Kansas. Just
to the west of this storm cluster, storms are expected to develop
along/near frontal boundaries stretching across northern Kansas and
into eastern Colorado. Strong daytime heating (surface temperatures
90+ F) should help focus convective initiation near these boundaries
and storms will form in a convectively conducive environment
characterized by MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg and effective bulk shear
of 30-50 knots. This should promote multicellular convection with
rotating storms capable of producing severe hail/wind this afternoon
and into the evening. These storms could organize upscale into a
QLCS this evening and track south-southeast across far eastern
Colorado and western/central Kansas. A watch is possible given the
eventual likelihood of severe storms.

..Nauslar/Hart.. 07/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   40249977 40430035 40380068 40040145 39800203 39680261
            39500295 39160304 38770291 38300263 37640188 37580136
            37560078 37509972 37689911 38079838 38209814 38389776
            38659767 38869775 39149801 39539847 40249977 

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