MD 1166 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS…FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0441 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2020
Areas affected...South-central and Southeast Kansas...Far Northern
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon
Valid 100941Z - 101015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail and a few severe wind
gusts will be possible over the next few hours across south-central
Kansas. A watch is currently being issued across south-central and
southeast Kansas.
DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows scattered
thunderstorms across parts of central Kansas. The storms are located
ahead of a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery.
The storms are also located along a gradient of moderate instability
extending from northwest Kansas southeastward into northern
Oklahoma. The RAP is estimating that MUCAPE values across central
Kansas are in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This will fuel the storms
as they move southeastward across southeastern Kansas over the next
few hours. Forecast soundings at Wichita have 50 kt of cloud-layer
shear and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km. The
environment should be adequate for large hail. Although the storms
should remain mostly elevated, a few severe wind gusts can not be
ruled out.
..Broyles/Thompson.. 07/10/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 36999591 36589650 36589791 36879860 37379918 38069944
38469976 38899994 39159971 39189917 39159841 38979744
38449667 37779592 36999591
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/2OoirNo
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