SPC MD 1181

MD 1181 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343… FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1181
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 AM CDT THU JUL 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL NEB AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343...

VALID 070731Z - 070900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 343
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH A QLCS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHWEST IA THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEB TO NORTH-CENTRAL KS ALREADY
HAS OR WILL HAVE EXITED ALL OF WW 343 BY 08Z.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS WILL REMAIN A RISK FOR HAIL AND/OR
LOCALLY STRONG WING GUSTS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THIS
WATCH BEYOND 08Z.  A PORTION OF THIS WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
TEMPORALLY.

DISCUSSION...AT 0715Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED ALL BUT THE
TRAILING SECTION OF THE IA/SOUTHEAST NEB/FAR NORTHERN KS QLCS HAD
ALREADY EXITED WW 343.  ALTHOUGH THIS DATA SUGGEST THE WATCH COULD
BE CANCELED SOON OR AS SCHEDULED AT 08Z...A FEW ELEVATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WW
343 DURING THE OVERNIGHT.  THESE STORMS WILL BE FORMING NORTH OF AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED QLCS THROUGH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF NORTH-CENTRAL
TO NORTHWEST KS.  WAA ATTENDANT TO A STRONG S/SWLY LLJ /50-60 KT PER
AMA/DDC VADS/ AND AN INFLUX OF MODERATELY STRONG MUCAPE 2000-3000
J/KG LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN KS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL /MAINLY EPISODIC/
STORM INTENSITY INCREASES WILL BE POSSIBLE.  TRENDS IN MRMS DATA
CONFIRM THE EPISODIC NATURE OF THESE STORMS WITH MESH SUGGESTING
HAIL AT TIMES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 1 INCH IN DIAMETER.

..PETERS.. 07/07/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...GID...GLD...

LAT...LON   40230072 40299949 40329831 40169744 39539759 39329811
            39369895 39469952 39619999 39920029 40230072 

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