MD 1186 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020
Areas affected...Northeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 111743Z - 111915Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...A threat for large hail (some very large) and damaging
winds will increase through the afternoon. A severe thunderstorm
watch is likely.
DISCUSSION...17Z surface analysis shows a cold front from northern
Missouri westward across northern Kansas which is slowly moving
south. An area of cumulus development has expanded in the vicinity
of this cold front over the past hour with a few failed attempts at
(likely elevated) initiation. However, temperatures have now warmed
into the low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s ahead of this front.
This has mostly eroded CINH according to SPC mesoanalysis and RAP
forecast soundings. As a result, more robust storm development has
been observed in Marshall and Nemaha counties, and increasing storm
coverage/intensity will likely continue through the afternoon. The
environment in this area is quite favorable for splitting supercells
given MLCAPE around 3000-4000 J/kg and increasing per SPC
mesoanalysis and long-straight hodographs with effective shear
around 50 knots. In addition, very steep lapse rates (8 C/km per 12Z
TOP RAOB) and moderately strong anvil layer flow (forecast to be 50
to 70 knots) will support a threat for very large hail.
Additionally, severe wind gusts (some significant) will also be
possible given the steep lapse rates and extreme instability. This
severe wind threat will likely become more substantial through time
as storms grow upscale.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39969716 39989614 39779520 39109449 38269441 37629506
37829605 38349654 39439742 39969716
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1nQNkWb
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