MD 1189 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS…SOUTHWEST MISSOURI…FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2020
Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Southwest Missouri...far
northeast Oklahoma...and far northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 112007Z - 112130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...A new severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon
downstream of watch 357.
DISCUSSION...A few supercells have developed in northeast Kansas and
are tracking southeastward. The strongest of these supercells has
tracked from Pottawatomie County to Osage County with numerous large
hail reports and a few reports of hail in excess of 2 inches. The
environment ahead of this supercell remains very favorable
(2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50-55 kts effective shear per SPC
mesoanalysis and TOP RAOB respectively) and thus it is expected to
persist despite HRRR guidance suggesting it may weaken/dissipate.
Additional storm development is also possible in the region,
especially near the outflow boundary on the western edge of the
ongoing convection. Given the favorable environment and the
expectation for ongoing storms to persist, a downstream watch will
likely be needed soon.
..Bentley/Guyer.. 07/11/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38209632 38349579 38419433 38229340 37779290 37119222
36809208 36549207 36149311 36119437 36389519 36999596
37649638 38209632
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/1BFPm7m
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