MD 1221 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 391… FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 1221 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CDT Mon Jul 03 2017 Areas affected...Portions of western and central KS Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391... Valid 030834Z - 031030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 391 continues. SUMMARY...The overall severe risk for damaging winds has greatly diminished during the overnight, while an isolated hail threat (periodically reaching diameters around 1 inch) will remain possible through the early morning. DISCUSSION...The overnight/early morning surface analyses combined with trends in mosaic radar imagery indicated a large composite outflow boundary, attendant to the central Plains MCS, extended from east of MHK to near EWK to south of PTT to southwest KS (Stanton County) and southeast CO. Mosaic radar imagery also indicated strong/sustained storms in and just south of the extreme south-central portion of WW 391, while a separate storm or two had developed in northwest KS (eastern Sherman County). In the short-term, low-level warm advection per southerly low-level winds atop the composite outflow boundary, combined with steep midlevel lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear, suggests the potential for a few additional strong to severe elevated storms. Hail will be the primary severe threat. However, this severe threat should be short-lived as the low-level jet undergoes further weakening, with a subsequent decrease in ascent limiting new/sustained storm development. ..Peters.. 07/03/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37789956 37679997 38640152 39480157 39170026 39189872 39219792 38639728 38109760 37749863 37789956
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