SPC MD 1256

MD 1256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ERN KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1256
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 AM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KANSAS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 120901Z - 121000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN STRONG SURFACE GUSTS APPEARS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM TOPEKA INTO KANSAS CITY DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.  IT IS NOT YET CLEAR THAT A WATCH IS NEEDED...BUT TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

DISCUSSION...FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD
ADVANCING COLD POOLS IS MAINTAINING VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND
NORTHWEST MISSOURI.  THIS IS OCCURRING DESPITE A CONTINUED GRADUAL
INCREASE IN INHIBITION FOR SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
PARCELS...BENEATH WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR.  HOWEVER...WITH
FORCED LIFT THROUGH THE MID-LEVEL INHIBITION...LARGE CAPE IS BEING
REALIZED.

WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER
MISSOURI VALLEY IS RATHER WEAK...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
...ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL JET...IS ON
THE ORDER OF 40-50+ KT.  HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF THIS MOMENTUM APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO RECENT
SCATTERED SEVERE WIND GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS PAST ITS
DIURNAL PEAK...AND WILL COMMENCE MORE SUBSTANTIVE WEAKENING THROUGH
THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME ...AT LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS
PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION NOW OCCURRING NEAR/NORTHWEST
OF TOPEKA DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION.  THIS APPEARS NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF THE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD ADVANCING
OUTFLOWS...AND COULD CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
OUTFLOW INTO PORTIONS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA DURING THE
10-12Z TIME FRAME...WITH PERHAPS INCREASING ORGANIZATION.  THIS
SEEMS TO PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

..KERR/GUYER.. 07/12/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39249443 39089359 38319359 37989419 37879460 38059586
            38779627 39219595 39249443 

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