MD 1261 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376… FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CDT WED JUL 13 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376...
VALID 131140Z - 131315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 376
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN INTENSITY WITH A CONTINUING RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AT
LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. IT IS NOT YET CERTAIN THAT A NEW
WATCH WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF THE CURRENT WATCH...BUT LOCAL WATCH
EXTENSIONS IN AREA MAY BE NEEDED AT LEAST AS FAR EAST AS
WABAUNSEE/LYONS AND CHASE COUNTIES.
DISCUSSION...BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...THE ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS IT TRACKS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE APPEARS LIKELY
THROUGH 12-13Z AS ACTIVITY ADVANCES TOWARD SALINA AND AREAS TO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH.
BEYOND 13Z...INTO AREAS EAST OF SALINA...THE MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN. DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE
PLAINS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY...AND THE
RAPID REFRESH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MORE SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER
WEAKENING /50+ KT TO LESS THAN 40/ DURING THE 13-15Z TIME FRAME. AS
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WEAKENS /AND
TENDS TO BECOME FOCUSED TO THE REAR OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM/...IT
IS NOT YET CERTAIN WHETHER BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING...AND LIFT ALONG
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL...WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND MAINTAIN VIGOROUS
NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
..KERR.. 07/13/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 39299834 39229737 39139628 38929506 37979541 37919742
38189877 38529854 39299834
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/29R6BIm
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