MD 1277 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1277
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020
Areas affected...East central Colorado
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191836Z - 192030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong winds and marginally severe hail are
possible with thunderstorms this afternoon. This threat should be
limited in duration and coverage, so a watch is not anticipated.
DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past hour have shown a gradual
strengthening in convection across central CO. IR satellite imagery
supports this trend with cooling cloud top temperatures noted in a
couple of storms. While the thermodynamic environment is favorable
for continued convection (with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE noted in recent
RAP mesoanalysis along and east of the CO Front Range), the shear
regime over the region is very weak and will continue to support
disorganized clusters of storms. However, steep 0-3 km lapse rates
between 8-9 C/km and a nearly 3 km deep dry sub-cloud layer will
support the potential for occasional downburst winds with the
strongest storms. Additionally, marginally severe hail will be
possible with the stronger updraft pulses. The general expectation
is for this activity to gradually increase in coverage as storms
move off the higher terrain and into eastern CO. However, given the
expected short duration of any one storm and isolated nature of the
threat, a watch is not anticipated.
..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 37810465 38170520 38850547 39690560 40230525 40510460
40540376 39980294 38930271 37870313 37790397 37810465
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