MD 1281 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1281
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2020
Areas affected...Northeast Kansas into central and eastern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 192000Z - 192200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is possible within the next 1-2
hours. A couple strong to severe storms are possible and may pose a
risk for hail and strong wind.
DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery shows increasingly agitated cumulus
along a stationary frontal boundary draped across MO and into
northeast KS. The onset of convective initiation may be occurring to
the northeast of the Topeka, KS area, as well as northwest of St.
Louis, MO along this boundary. This suggests that thunderstorm
development is probable within the next one to two hours, and will
become increasingly likely heading into the late afternoon hours as
destabilization continues. These storms will develop within a
moderately unstable air mass, characterized by upwards of 3000 J/kg
MLCAPE. However, deep layer shear is relatively marginal across most
of this region, with slightly more favorable effective bulk shear in
place along the instability gradient across northern MO. Due to the
weak shear fields and the increasing possibility of storm
interactions with time (due to storm motions nearly along the
boundary), storms may struggle to maintain organization long enough
to pose a robust severe threat. Despite this concern, a couple of
strong to severe storms are possible and may pose a threat for
severe hail and strong wind, especially initially before more
widespread convection occurs along the boundary.
..Moore/Hart.. 07/19/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39429598 39539489 39549246 39479131 39199043 38739034
38529104 38349264 38529428 38649541 38899616 39209621
39429598
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3eD0ZAA
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