MD 1298 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1298
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017
Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and Northern Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 122255Z - 130030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing within an extremely unstable
environment across northeast Missouri. These will pose an isolated
large hail and strong, gusty thunderstorm wind threat as they move
east. The isolated nature of the threat should preclude the need for
a watch.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along a weak surface
boundary draped across northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. To
the south of this boundary, low-level moisture is maximized across
northwest Missouri, where surface dewpoints are in the mid-to-upper
70s beneath maximum mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km. This
combination has resulted in extreme instability (most-unstable CAPE
values in excess of 4000-5000 J/kg) across northeast Kansas and
portions of northwest Missouri. Given such values, strong
thunderstorm updrafts should develop and have the potential for
large hail and damaging severe thunderstorm winds. However, these
thunderstorms are developing along the southern fringes of the
better deep-layer shear. At present, deep-layer shear across these
thunderstorms is estimated to be generally at or below 30 knots,
which would tend to favor multicellular updrafts over isolated,
longer lived updrafts. This should limit the overall duration of
severe potential. A watch is currently not anticipated.
..Marsh/Edwards.. 07/12/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 38629664 39399676 39809621 40169511 40379404 40389307
40319293 39999241 39349241 38799281 38539453 38399560
38629664
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