MD 1303 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 338… FOR PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1303 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Thu Aug 16 2018 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kansas/western Missouri/northeastern Oklahoma/northwest Arkansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338... Valid 162252Z - 170015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 338 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to develop across the watch area and pose some risk for severe hail and wind into the 7-8 PM time frame. Thereafter, continuing severe weather potential remains unclear, but it is possible that another watch could become necessary to the east, across parts of southern Missouri and adjacent northern Arkansas. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues to increase to the southeast of the Interstate 35 corridor of eastern Kansas. This activity appears focused along a weak baroclinic zone near the southern periphery of a mid-level closed low now digging across the middle Missouri Valley, where 30-40+ kt westerly 500 mb flow is contributing to moderately strong deep layer shear. Into the the early evening hours, it does appear that a gradual merger/consolidation of this activity with vigorous thunderstorms now developing along northeastward advancing convective outflow (emanating from north central Oklahoma) will continue east of Wichita, across the Chanute area into the southern Kansas/Missouri border vicinity. Subsequent evolution and the potential for an appreciable continuing risk for severe hail and wind remain unclear thereafter, due to generally weak low-level forcing for maintaining convective development. However, it appears at least possible that one prominent surface cold pool could eventually emerge and maintain vigorous convective development on its leading/eastern edge, tending to propagate southeastward across the Interstate 44 corridor of southwest Missouri, in the presence of 20-30 kt westerly deep layer mean flow. ..Kerr.. 08/16/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 38739272 38299187 37199141 36349172 36139302 36339431 36439490 36839606 37799724 38579564 38879336 38739272
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2MsLaT2
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