MD 1398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 1398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas eastward across Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222226Z - 230030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to increase in coverage through evening, with damaging wind and hail possible. DISCUSSION...Scattered severe storms are currently ongoing across much of north central KS near a cold front and where extremely hot temperatures exist. Northeasterly winds behind the front are actually resulting in increasing CAPE values as dewpoints are in the 70s F, with much drier air over southwest KS. Visible imagery and radar show widely-spaced, but vigorous updrafts now forming along the boundary from northeast KS across far northern MO and to the MS river. Meanwhile, extreme instability has built up with MUCAPE in excess of 4000-5000 J/kg. A slight increase in lift is expected with time, with convergence along the front and with a grazing of the upper shortwave trough to the northeast. Shear will be weak but given such instability, severe multicell clusters are possible, capable of wind and hail. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 07/22/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39039748 39539664 40349351 40329260 39779181 38869158 38209236 38069465 38069591 38389680 38609723 39039748
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2tA7zW0
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