MD 1402 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN/CENTRAL KS…SOUTH-CENTRAL NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Sat Sep 01 2018 Areas affected...Western/Central KS...South-Central NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011945Z - 012145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Gradually increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated with a resulting threat for a few instances of strong wind gusts and/or large hail. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery has shown increased vertical development within the cluster of predominately mid-level cloudiness moving northeastward through western KS. This cloudiness is most likely tied to lift attendant to the shortwave trough moving into the same area. This lift, coupled with convergence along a surface trough and continued airmass destabilization (supported by diurnal heating and moisture advection), is expected to result in increased thunderstorm coverage over the next hour or two. The development early in this time frame will likely be elevated but eventual surface-based development is anticipated. Vertical shear is strong enough to support storm organization and robust updrafts. High-based character to these thunderstorms will favor the development of potentially strong downdrafts, which appears to be the primary severe threat. Some large hail is also possible within the more organized updrafts. Uncertainties regarding severe coverage preclude high watch probabilities but convective trends will be monitored closely. ..Mosier/Grams.. 09/01/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39150088 40190033 40679887 40229730 39059752 38499862 37920052 39150088
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