MD 1405 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434… FOR EAST-CENTRAL MO INTO WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1405
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017
Areas affected...East-central MO into western and south-central IL
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...
Valid 230812Z - 231015Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434
continues.
SUMMARY...Long-lived line of storms will continue to pose a threat
for damaging winds across east-central MO into western IL through
09Z. Downstream environment and convective trends are being
monitored across south-central and southeast IL for new WW issuance.
DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery through 0750Z showed a
long-lived line of storms maintaining primarily an eastward movement
with the strongest eastward surge occurring in Lincoln County MO at
50 kt. The northern end of the line of storms moving through Pike
County IL indicated some deceleration with storm motion at 35-40 kt.
IR satellite imagery showed the coldest cloud tops remain on the
leading edge of the storm complex moving through east-central MO to
adjacent western IL (in vicinity and north of STL). Objective
analyses indicated moderately strong instability remains over
eastern MO into central and southern IL (MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/kg)
suggesting this storm complex will persist into IL.
The environment farther downstream from the southeast portion of ILX
county warning area into much of southwest IN has been convectively
overturned, and should mark the eastern extent of a severe-weather
threat as the upstream storms approach this region. A moderate
instability gradient extended from southern IL into western KY which
may result in more of an eventual southeast turn for the strongest
portion of the line of storms.
..Peters.. 07/23/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...
LAT...LON 39559132 39749079 39748984 39608912 39088832 38528796
37778816 37838886 37948931 38099050 38269165 38969128
39559132
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2uoa4Yv
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