MD 1430 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420… FOR PARTS OF SRN AND ERN KS/NRN OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0816 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN AND ERN KS/NRN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420... VALID 290116Z - 290245Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 420 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE SERN HALF OF KS /I.E. THE REMAINING SERN PORTIONS OF WW 420/...WITH RISK S OF THE WW INTO NRN OK MORE UNCERTAIN. NEW WW COULD BECOME NECESSARY...THOUGH ATTM THINKING IS THAT STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT S OF THE EXISTING WW. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED/ARCING BAND OF STORMS CROSSING INTO SRN/ERN KS ATTM...AND IS NEARING THE ERN AND SRN FRINGES OF WW 420. SOME WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD TOPEKA HAS BEEN OBSERVED...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE -- WITH AN INCREASINGLY ISOLATED SEVERE RISK APPARENT ATTM WITH EWD EXTENT. MEANWHILE...THE FASTER-MOVING/MORE INTENSE SRN PORTION OF THE LINE OF STORMS /NEAR THE ICT VICINITY/ CONTINUES TO SURGE SEWD AS IT INTERACTS WITH REMNANT/NWWD MOVING OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER OK CONVECTION. AS THE STORMS CONTINUE SEWD HOWEVER...A MORE CONVECTIVELY STABILIZED AIRMASS OVER NRN OK ON THE COOL SIDE OF AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT DETRIMENTAL EFFECT ON CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...CASTING UNCERTAINTY UPON THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH S OF WW 420. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...THOUGH ATTM WE ARE LEANING SLIGHTLY AGAINST NEW WW ISSUANCE. ..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 07/29/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38359726 39549632 39289534 36709510 36429719 36819850 37729872 38359726
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