MD 1460 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS…NORTHERN OKLAHOMA…SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI…AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1460
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020
Areas affected...Far northern Texas Panhandle into southern
Kansas...northern Oklahoma...southwestern Missouri...and extreme
northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 102150Z - 102315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Vigorous convective development and intensification is
underway across parts of the southern Plains. Damaging gusts are the
primary threat, with some severe hail possible as well. Convective
trends will be monitored for the need of one or more WWs to address
the increasing severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Rapid pulse cellular and multicellular development has
been underway over the past couple of hours, situated within an
instability axis ahead of a southward sagging cold front. Steep
lapse rates (7.5-9 C/km) throughout a deep layer of the troposphere
are currently supporting up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. While tropospheric
flow is weak overall, noticeable veering in the sfc-700 mb layer is
promoting some deep-layer shear for marginal storm organization.
Upscale growth of a few convective clusters via cold pool mergers
are possible, where more concentrated damaging wind threats may
ensue. As such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for
upscale organization and the need of potential WW issuance over the
next couple of hours.
..Squitieri/Thompson.. 08/10/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36410246 37600140 38340098 38079591 37719440 36989241
36269206 35549243 35659363 36009600 36219955 36410246
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3gOEVF8
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