MD 1523 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL KANSAS…OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KANSAS...OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 112049Z - 112315Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT IS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE THE NECESSITY OF A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...AHEAD OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...STORMS ARE INITIATING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ACROSS SWRN KANSAS
TO A SURFACE LOW IN SERN NEB. STRONG HEATING COMBINED WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F HAS RESULTED IN
DESTABILIZATION ALONG THIS CORRIDOR /MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG
PER MESOANALYSIS/. MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS GIVEN THE STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MARGINAL NATURE AND
LIMITED COVERAGE OF THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
THE NEED FOR A WATCH.
..JIRAK/DARROW.. 08/11/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36510206 37470089 38070029 38479992 39209893 39719843
40049786 40039706 40029648 39589634 38909689 38019796
37289862 36120045 35860189 36510206
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2aKuzn7
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