MD 1565 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS INTO NERN KS AND FAR NWRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1565
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0450 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS
INTO NERN KS AND FAR NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 282150Z - 290015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS
THE AREA.
DISCUSSION...A SLOW-MOVING/STALLING SFC BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM
NEAR BEATRICE NEB TO E OF DODGE CITY KS TO AMARILLO TX...AND
INSTABILITY IS BECOMING STRONG ALONG AND ON THE WARM SIDE /E AND S
SIDE/ OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
BETWEEN 3000 AND 4000 J/KG WITH LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINING. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY...BOUNDARY-LAYER-BASED CUMULUS
FIELDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGITATED INVOF THE BOUNDARY AS THE PBL
HAS DEEPENED WITH SFC TEMPS HAVING REACHED 95-103F ON THE WARM SIDE
OF THE BOUNDARY.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BECOME INTENSE OWING TO
THE STRONG INSTABILITY. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
DCAPE AROUND 1200-1600 J/KG WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG DOWNDRAFTS
WITH A FEW SVR WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE LARGE DEGREE OF BUOYANCY MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SOME SVR HAIL POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...THE STALLING
NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE SOME FRONTAL-ZONE RESIDENCE TIME
FOR TSTMS TO INTERACT WITH RELATED BOUNDARY-ENHANCED VERTICAL
VORTICITY TO BE STRETCHED FOR A NON-ZERO -- ALBEIT LOW -- TORNADO
POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OVER 25 KT ARE GENERALLY
DISPLACED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE SVR POTENTIAL WILL
BE VERY LIMITED IN THE HIGH-MLCINH ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...TSTMS MAY
STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE ACROSS THE REGION...LIMITING THE OVERALL
COVERAGE OF SVR POTENTIAL...LIKELY PRECLUDING WW ISSUANCE.
REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED -- PARTICULARLY IN
NERN KS TO FAR NWRN MO THAT WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE TAIL
END OF A GLANCING MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION LOCALLY ENHANCING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN THESE AREAS. SLIGHTLY STRONGER DEEP SHEAR
RELATED TO THIS FEATURE MAY ENCOURAGE AN EVOLUTION TO MORE ORGANIZED
MULTICELL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH A SOMEWHAT GREATER SVR RISK.
..COHEN/HART.. 07/28/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 39799726 39949478 39619450 39349500 38809632 38139734
36130013 35120209 35280259 35660240 38089959 39799726
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1Kxi0by
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