MD 1577 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN NEB…SWRN IA…NWRN MO…NERN KS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1577 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0500 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...SWRN IA...NWRN MO...NERN KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 232200Z - 232330Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS. DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB/SWRN IA/NWRN MO ALONG A WARM FRONT. MODERATE BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS...RESULTING IN A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...CURRENT STORM MOTIONS ARE TAKING UPDRAFTS QUICKLY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DURATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN NEB JUST EAST OF LINCOLN...WHILE OTHER STRONG STORMS ONGOING ACROSS N-CNTRL KS WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH NERN KS/SERN NEB WITHIN 1-2 HRS. ANY STORMS THAT BECOME ESTABLISHED IN THIS REGION WILL HAVE A LONGER RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...WITH SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS IF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND/OR THE ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST INTO NERN KS/SERN NEB APPEARS TO PRESENT A MORE WIDESPREAD AND IMMINENT SEVERE THREAT. ..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 08/23/2016 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID... LAT...LON 40379861 40869823 41559755 41829664 41759564 41689510 41459442 40699381 40149353 39559335 39139358 38969407 38919527 39159683 39529789 40379861
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2bLdY3K
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