SPC MD 1579

MD 1579 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN NEB…WRN IA…NERN KS…NWRN MO

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0836 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB...WRN IA...NERN KS...NWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 240136Z - 240300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS...WITH SOME WEAKENING EXPECTED BY LATE
EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO IN THE SHORT TERM.

DISCUSSION...AT 0130Z...TWO SUPERCELLS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ONGOING...ONE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS NERN KS
SOUTHEAST OF CONCORDIA...AND THE OTHER A NEARLY STATIONARY HP
SUPERCELL IN ERN NEB NORTH OF OMAHA. 00Z OAX AND TOP SOUNDINGS SHOW
MODERATE-TO-STRONG BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR/HELICITY FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST
THE SHORT TERM...INCLUDING A CONTINUED RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.
STORM INTENSITY IS LIKELY PEAKING NOW...WITH DIURNAL
COOLING/STABILIZATION NOW UNDERWAY...THOUGH STORM COVERAGE MAY
INCREASE AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...WHICH IS ALREADY
UNDERWAY ACROSS ERN NEB IN THE VICINITY OF THE HP SUPERCELL. UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO ONE OR TWO FORWARD-PROPAGATING CLUSTERS IS POSSIBLE AS
COLD POOLS MERGE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE MAINTENANCE OF SOME
DAMAGING WIND THREAT INTO LATE EVENING. 

THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH...THOUGH
THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY TOO ISOLATED FOR
WATCH ISSUANCE...AND THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY REMAIN TOO
MARGINAL/ISOLATED WITH ANY UPSCALE-GROWING CLUSTERS LATER THIS
EVENING.

..DEAN/THOMPSON.. 08/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   39439766 40079760 41219732 41779670 42229580 42029507
            41339448 39959466 39309486 39109550 39069624 39139668
            39159725 39229759 39439766 

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