MD 1585 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1585 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Areas affected...Southern South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270021Z - 270215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Ongoing strong to severe storms will continue to pose an isolated hail and wind threat through sunset. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Radar trends over the past couple of hours have shown additional convective development along the southward propagating outflow of the initial cluster of supercells that developed in central SD. Recent IR imagery shows rapid cloud top cooling and an uptick in lightning activity associated with this newer convection, indicating that the environment remains unstable with little inhibition. Recent RAP analyses support this idea with little MLCIN and nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE ahead of the outflow across southern SD. Effective bulk shear at 40-45 knots also remains favorable for organized convection. Deep layer flow roughly oriented along the outflow boundary may increase the probability of storm interactions, which could limit the duration and coverage of the severe threat moving forward. However, given this environment initially discrete storms should remain capable a hail and wind threat through sunset when diurnal cooling will begin to increase inhibition and limit the potential for sustained mature convection. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/27/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 43440275 43860216 44220089 44190016 43539979 43060003 42990069 42950155 42970249 43440275
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/32r1c5W
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