MD 1587 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1587 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020 Areas affected...Idaho into southwest Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270104Z - 270300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible through sunset. Strong downburst winds remain the primary threat associated with these storms. A watch remains unlikely. DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite trends over the past 2 hours across ID and southwest MT have shown a slight uptick in convective coverage and intensity with several storms showing moderate to strong cloud top cooling. The environment over this region remains supportive of organized convection with upwards of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE and 45 knot effective bulk shear. Although there is some inhibition in place, orographic ascent has thus far been able to overcome this limitation. Furthermore, increasing (albeit weak) ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough to the west should help maintain sufficient ascent for convection through the evening hours. Low-level lapse rates across the region continue to support a strong wind potential, and instances of severe hail can not be ruled out given adequate instability, shear, and mid-level lapse rates. This activity should gradually diminish after sunset this evening, and the threat will remain too isolated to warrant a watch. ..Moore/Guyer.. 08/27/2020 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 42031713 43831701 45721458 46241347 45991129 45551010 44461086 42941269 41941403 42031713
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