MD 1650 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS…WESTERN MO…NORTHEAST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 1650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 PM CDT Sat Sep 16 2017 Areas affected...Portions of eastern KS...western MO...northeast OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162055Z - 162330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts could accompany small convective clusters into the early evening hours -- east of recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1649. Watch issuance is unlikely for this eastern regime. DISCUSSION...Persistent elevated convection within a band of isentropic ascent from north-central OK to the lower Missouri Valley is becoming near-surface based in response to continued diurnal surface heating. This activity may produce isolated severe wind gusts within a fairly narrow spatial window -- the eastern extent of which is marked by drier/more stable air emanating from an anticyclone farther east. Nevertheless, 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with upwards of around 1000 J/kg of DCAPE may support a few bouts of intense convection with isolated severe wind gusts. Relatively weak deep shear/ascent will mitigate the overall severe risk, as this activity tracks eastward/northeastward into early evening. ..Cohen/Guyer.. 09/16/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 36609626 37869544 39199441 38809383 37119440 36469558 36609626
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1J3rqhK
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