MD 0168 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR NORTHERN KANSAS…FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0168
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0641 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018
Areas affected...Far Northern Kansas...Far Southern Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 232341Z - 240215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Some severe threat may develop over the next one to two
hours across far southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas. Hail and
a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. Although the potential
for severe will remain isolated, weather watch issuance can not be
ruled out.
DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 997 mb low over
northwest Kansas with a warm front extending southeastward from the
low across northern and eastern Kansas. Thunderstorms are developing
just to the north of the surface low center near the Nebraska-Kansas
state-line. This convection is located near a shortwave trough and
pronounced vorticity max evident on water vapor imagery. Although
surface dewpoints are only in the mid 40s to mid 50s F across the
MCD area, forecast soundings show very steep low-level lapse rates
in the low to mid-levels. This is resulting in some elevated
instability with the RAP estimating MUCAPE values around 1000 to
1200 J/kg. In addition, the WSR-88D VWP at Hastings shows effective
shear around 60 kt. This should be enough for the development of
storm rotation and possible isolated large hail with the stronger
cells this evening. Even though the storms may remain elevated, a
few damaging wind gusts will also be possible with the
better-developed downdrafts. The isolated severe threat may affect
far southeastern Nebraska and far northeast Kansas by mid to late
evening.
..Broyles/Darrow.. 03/23/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...GLD...
LAT...LON 39579649 39489886 39669988 40120010 40499978 40589851
40539695 40149620 39579649
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2FZdMkk
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