MD 1682 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NERN KS THROUGH SERN NEB…EXTREME NWRN MO AND SWRN IA.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CDT MON SEP 12 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS THROUGH SERN NEB...EXTREME NWRN MO AND SWRN
IA.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122231Z - 130030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM NERN KS THROUGH SERN NEB
INTO SWRN IA MAY POSE AT LEAST A MODEST RISK FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME OVERALL THREAT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NWRN IA
THROUGH SERN NEB INTO NCNTRL KS. AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE RESIDES ALONG MOIST AXIS IN VICINITY OF
AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. BASED ON RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A
MODEST CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...AN MCV IS
EVIDENT OVER NERN KS AND SERN NEB...AND THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE
EWD THIS EVENING. DESPITE A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...DEEPER
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV AND STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ
INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT MULTICELL STORM MODES POSING A RISK FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING.
..DIAL/GUYER.. 09/12/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40069770 41049658 41899583 41959480 41009469 39629611
39399733 40069770
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2caOShi
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