MD 1691 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1691 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017 Areas affected...Much of southwest into central Kansas and southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 061955Z - 062200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are likely to form across southwest Kansas and perhaps extreme southeast Colorado by around 21Z. Very large hail is likely, with an increasing threat of damaging winds through evening across central Kansas. DISCUSSION...Surface observations show southwesterly winds have increased across the High Plains in response to heating and mixing; east of a developing cold front across CO and NM, and south of a stationary front from west-central KS into southeast NE. Increasing CU fields can now be seen on high-res GOES 16 one-minute imagery from southeast CO into southwest KS as CIN erodes near the surface low. Although this area is ahead of the main boundaries, low-level speed convergence exists on the nose of the steeper low-level lapse rates which is aiding lift. The 18Z DDC sounding indicated a capping inversion, with mid 80s temperatures needed to reduce inhibition to zero. Continued heating as well as the rapidly approaching shortwave trough should allow for cells to form ahead of the cold front by late afternoon. The veered southwesterly winds beneath increasing southwesterlies aloft are resulting in a long, primarily straight hodograph, with marginal low-level SRH values. This may temper tornado potential with expected supercells, with the best chance of a brief tornado during early development and with storms traveling along the stationary front. Ample instability and favorably increasing speed shear aloft will favor very large hail with the initial cells. With time, activity will merge, with cells possibly bowing northeastward along the front. Damaging winds are expected, along with the potential for wind-driven hail. ..Jewell/Grams.. 10/06/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... LAT...LON 37520329 37950353 38990297 39150249 39130175 39030080 39060004 39439881 39389809 38949748 38499746 38129795 37560014 37200216 37250259 37520329
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2z36zbH
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