MD 1716 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500… FOR SOUTHEAST KS…FAR SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 1716 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017 Areas affected...Southeast KS...Far Southwest MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500... Valid 150032Z - 150200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 500 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and perhaps marginally severe hail continues across southeast KS. While storms will eventually move into southwest MO, a weakening trend is expected later this evening as a cold front sweeps through the area. DISCUSSION...Multiple potentially severe bowing segments have evolved across southeast KS over the last 1-2 hours. With moderate instability and relatively strong low-level flow and effective shear in place, these features will continue to pose a threat of damaging wind and localized hail for the next 1-2 hours as they move into southeast KS and west-central MO. The strongest of the bowing segments is likely to move east-northeast into Tornado Watch 501, while the trailing segments will eventually impact the remainder of southeast KS into southwest MO. A strong cold front is approaching the southeast KS from the north and will overtake the strongest convection by mid-evening. With the strongest large-scale ascent moving northeast away from the region and weaker moisture and instability with eastward extent (as noted in 00Z SGF sounding), a weakening trend is expected with time as convection becomes increasingly undercut over southwest MO. Some local extension of the WW 500 may be required in the short term across southwest MO, but at this time new watch issuance is unlikely. ..Dean/Guyer.. 10/15/2017 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 37059759 37499764 37889687 38199602 38409533 38519489 38499468 38229439 37989368 37139379 37059759
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2gaUppj
Be First to Comment