MD 1741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS TO NORTHERN OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1741 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1153 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN KS TO NORTHERN OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 230453Z - 230700Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK. WHILE A WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT IMMINENT...CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. DISCUSSION...ALONG//BEHIND A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS AS OF 05Z WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY MERGE/POTENTIALLY GROW UPSCALE OVERNIGHT ACROSS ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN OK. IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PER REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA...EPISODIC SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE A POSSIBILITY EVEN WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THE LIMITED MAGNITUDE OF THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK MAY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT. ..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/23/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 38669914 39149782 39439647 38669586 38049528 36839562 36969793 38669914
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1PIj3rd
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